Ocean freight update: The only certainty is uncertainty

Ocean freight still difficult to gauge

Ocean freight continues to be influenced as much by carrier behaviour as by actual supply and demand. Whilst rates have softened across a number of trades in recent weeks, carriers remain focused on managing capacity through blank sailings, service changes and vessel deployment adjustments to prevent freight levels falling too quickly.

Demand out of Asia remains relatively healthy, but buying patterns have become far less predictable than we’ve traditionally seen. Earlier concerns around tariffs and rising costs encouraged many importers to bring shipments forward, creating demand spikes that appeared earlier than expected. As a result, forecasting market movements has become increasingly challenging.

Congestion also remains a concern across parts of Europe, impacting schedule reliability and equipment availability. Combined with longer routings caused by ongoing Red Sea disruption, transit times remain under pressure and continue to create knock-on effects throughout global supply chains.

Capacity management remains a key factor

Shipping lines continue to actively manage available capacity rather than allowing the market to find its own level. Blank sailings and network adjustments remain common, helping carriers maintain utilisation levels and support pricing where demand softens.

For shippers, this means market conditions can still change very quickly. Whilst rates may be more attractive than they were a few months ago, available space, routing options and sailing schedules remain susceptible to sudden disruption.

Planning ahead remains one of the most effective ways to minimise risk and avoid unnecessary cost increases.

Costs extend beyond the freight rate

Although freight rates on the Far East West Bound have softened, other key routes such as Indian Subcontinent has seen a sharp increases this month as capacity and container availability is tight.

Fuel prices remain volatile, contributing to higher bunker-related charges and fuel surcharges across both ocean and air freight. In addition, equipment imbalances, operational inefficiencies and various conflict-related surcharges continue to impact overall transport costs.

As a result, lower freight rates do not always translate into significantly lower landed costs.

Air Freight is resilient but not without challenges

The air freight market remains relatively strong, although operational challenges continue to influence capacity and pricing.

Restricted airspace, conflict-related disruption and evolving airline networks are still impacting available capacity on certain routes. Whilst additional capacity is entering the market, it has not completely offset the challenges created by longer routings and ongoing operational constraints.

Demand remains strongest for time-critical, high-value and e-commerce cargo, helping to keep pricing relatively firm on key trade lanes.

Looking Ahead

If there is one consistent theme in today’s market, it’s that conditions can change quickly.

Carrier rate increases, blank sailings, congestion, fuel costs and geopolitical events all continue to influence the direction of the market, often with very little notice. One market can see a decline in rates, where another can see spikes.

For importers and exporters, the message remains simple:

• Stay flexible.
• Plan ahead wherever possible.
• Keep supply chains agile enough to react as conditions evolve.

As always, the Europa Air & Sea team continues to monitor developments closely and will keep you updated on any changes that could impact your shipments and supply chain planning.

If you have any questions or require support with upcoming bookings, please contact your account manager or email airandseasales@europa-worldwide.com.